The first half of the 2024 monsoon season has brought generous rainfall to many places in the Land of Enchantment. For some places, it has been too much of a good thing, resulting in devastating flash flooding in places like Ruidoso and in parts of the Estancia basin near Willard. One can't help but notice our typically barren landscape has turned an unusual hue of green in some places thanks to this year's relatively wet monsoon pattern in June and July. However, as we turned into August, the monsoon moisture tap has been gradually winding down as the high pressure center that was situated over Texas and Oklahoma had broken down and the dominant high pressure circulation re-established over the Four Corners.
But for at least the next week, it looks like the spigot of tropical moisture will completely shut off as a blocking high pressure system develops squarely over New Mexico. The result will be rising temperatures with record to near-record highs for parts of the Eastern Plains and Rio Grande Valley starting this weekend and heading into next week. Many lower elevation areas across the state will see temperatures approach or surpass the 100-degree mark, including the Albuquerque metro. In other words, the heat dome is back, and it's here to stay at least for the next week or so.
Meanwhile, very dry air will be working into the region, keeping the Land of Enchantment bone dry, save for a few isolated afternoon storms over far western and northern New Mexico. The dry air mass will also allow for efficient radiational cooling, and could result in chilly nighttime lows in the favored high-elevation valleys. Locations such as Angel Fire, Red River, Eagle Nest, and Chama could see overnight lows dropping into the 30s under clear skies and light winds. Even in some lower elevation locales, temperatures will cool rapidly after sunset despite near-record to record daytime highs. Also contributing to this phenomenon, known as the "long thermometer" is the fact that the days are getting noticeably shorter (and nights longer) as we now are just a little more than a month away from the first day of autumn. For the 16th of August, will will have more than an hour less daylight than we did at the summer solstice on June 20th.
Current computer models show the heat dome remaining parked over New Mexico through at least Wednesday of next week. Afterward, computer models start to disagree as to whether the heat dome will weaken and shift eastward into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The monsoon moisture tap and a return to cooler and wetter conditions would occur if the high center does weaken and shift into Texas and Oklahoma. But other models keep the heat dome situated squarely over the Land of Enchantment into next weekend and beyond, which would result in a continuation of the scorching heat and bone dry conditions.
Either way, there is still about six weeks remaining in the 2024 monsoon season, which is still plenty of time to turn this season into a boom or a bust.
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